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    йĸ

    ߣ
    ʱ䣺2003-11-06
    һӰ˼Σ

    йWTO֮ûDZڵǰ۴ĸǶй۵ĻĪ

    20ͺձ֮С(¼̨)ܿ˦ñ̩ӡʹǶ޾óֹ𾪵й漣ʮйת͹б˸չеѧҰ޾ܽɡģʽ޾þͿ԰мչȥ1990ԺĭõıʹձһͷԽֱ컹û꼻һ1997һ籩ɨǵھŵһһһȥѾʲôЩҡϸòװѹ˾ֵ㵽ǧԪƺѾеҵת֮һһ޸Ѿ˽ڷ籩

    ޽ڷ籩Ϊйڽ199811¡ѧˡ־ķһҹǺķۿҪԱһд֣йڷ籩һƷת֮ȥڲ׺ΨйΡȻйȶض˽ڷ籩Ϊ޾羭õĸմתйĹ׵õ˸Լ޿ȹʽ֯ĸ߶ҲйijɫֳijЩ˵ͷΪ޽ڷ籩Ҳ޿κʲô

    йһԢԽһڶɴһСİѽŲæڴϿ̸Ǻ㵽˰ijЩ˾񡰿һǾû뵽֮йܹ޽ڷ籩ΪǸʱûж⿪ŽһܺõķǽһWTOйⲿȫǽʱǨĻ۽dz©

    ڹڶ⿪Ž֮ôĿѵǻӦȡѵùģСDzձ÷չʱ䳤DzСͶܼƷıȽǺͶǸǷ׷мѵйʲôһܹڷ籩Ϯ

    ڼΡ˹200111̸йĽϵʱΪйĽϵձͺʾйϵеĻϵյܹԿⲻʻԽԽDzȥйѾʶһھȫεĸĸ޷ɹҵɵҪͱҵ˹شҪΪѾηǰʼ谭ʱЧȻйĴʸٸߵĴҲڵ֧ŲĻձйǰ֮˹̫Dz˶йWTO֮ȻҪ⿪ӦеһijйǷܹƽھ

    еľѧж˵һйڽ[2]⻰һ㶼ûджϵǰάĿǰҵڶⶼʵֻҪй⿪ŽٹҲ1997ڷ籩ϯ޵ʱЩҺͽڷ籩ǡˮˮɹŵǵϰտ´ûиܵڷ籩вǵĽϵôȫؼûж⿪Ž֮Щʵ˶⿪ŽڵĹ̩ӡ޲ڽڷ籩ʧɴ˿ɼ⿪ŽȻдٽ÷չͬʱҲбڷ籩ϮΣ

    ĿǰѾ130Ҽó֯ûĸΪصIJҵǽȫƵƵ10ڱȽصĽ46ƵԽԽƻԽԽǿйԺԽԽʶڽDZľ޴ķӱע

    йڶԸҵгʧҵ¸ũ½ϻ϶һЩûдŻµĽйڵֶ¢µĽ㹻ľһ⿪ڷյij̶ȽѸЩڹԱԹʽгȱ˽ΪرЩǷdzΣյ⾴ָ޳йһ֦˵йDZŸעĻܿԸҸ˵ע

    û׼ôһڷ籩ľͺܿй

    ڸĸٲά

    2.1ҵĸؾȱ

    ֻҪһйؾøĸDzѷ򲢲һĽڸļмѽڸĸҪλ20022µĽڹоڸĸķ򣺽ڼҪְǿڼʩȽĻٽƶҵһǿߵ͸ۺøֻ߹ػҹӦȵ2001108ձ()ƪ¡ҵӦս߿ԲߣһƵĽڵϵǿеĽڼȫεĽڷշϵڶҵŵٶȺг׼ҵΧӿҵеĻĸƶ߷ȡʱӿҵҪ´еʲṹ³ֲʲĸԴȵ

    һ˵Щûдǻᷢͨƪ˵õԸϣﵽĿȴûиôܴﵽЩĿѵǰûҪƵĽڵϵѵûҪĸ¹ƶ߷ѵƪٷļûἰҪǰûЩںȻʧְʵǰв֪ٱȷʵڵҲȡĸʩ͹۵˵ȷʵ˺ܴĽǰЩöڸĸҡҡڰʼûȡͻԵĽչΪʲôЩôҵǵûתԽԽ

    ӹйҵƸĸ1985꿪ʼ10ļŬѾȡ˾޴ijɾҪ۵DzҪ

    Dz˵ĸ鲻Ҫʶһϴһ׵Ҫ̨ϳϷȴһ׵һҵѾʱǵҵĸ̾DzϽϴĹûöʱԱϷ϶ΪҪ볪ϷҪץйһץйҵĸмСеȵΪֹЩСϷdzIJǴӸĸ֮һֹӪгˡץ𡱵·ϴҪֺ߼ǶôЦ

    ǽȷҪú÷˼һҵĸĸ֮·

    2.2һһ

    ڽڸĸһǷϾһçײٶ

    2000ѧȫΧڿʼӪео̽ѧ߶ڶ⿪Ž֮ǰȶڿͨӪƹڽгľıڽIJȨṹھиƹжеľӪЩһ¿ǽ--־ȲҲ޳˵2003شĸʩ޷̨һڡѡꡱǰ첻˴µԴȫ⿪ŽճѾȷв5ʱоҪڹгйӶγϾս׼ʱͲװ׵һʱʵ˿ϧ

    ֪Ϊʲôԭ20023ڸĸͻȻ2002323ձϵһƪ¡ݡʱ١¿ͷйгıҵΪһλմطŴ첻ʲشòʲЩһָоΪƽڸĸijЩҵеĸѾ˻Ų·ij̶ڸĸĺгһҵܹԾԾ

    гֻҪļҲҷҲòŷȨ¢ǵ´ʹʲôҲȴҴææطǿǧܴһһŪòѽڸĸ;

    еʱ

    3.1ҵе

    ҵвһ»ڷչֶչѾз3.5ڹ42ԪҲϢϣڶ˵л׼15ڹÿ7Ԫʶ100ԪΪĿǰ½ڶ˾[3]Ĵҵйеĺйг˵йѾ2001۲ֵ׼[4]ͻȻ20022½ڹԺijЩҵ˱ʾڸĸصǹжҵеƸĸصʵʩɷƸĸʱ2002316¼ұڡ̳ϱʾп齨ΪҿعɵĹɷṹʱ[5]

    Ϊʲô˼˵еĿľҪOʽʹܹﵽʱ

    йг˵к͹ҵмҪ蹵Ҫ10˵ʱʵշʲƺITȷ[6]еһҪǿеʱʵʱгε20021˵ҵڲʱĻϻȫҪһҪ;[7]оһ¹ҵеʱ

    3.2ҵʱز

    еʲ(һʱ)ʲеıΪʲաЭ顷еʱӦ8%ﲻ׼ͻӰеȶ

    Ĵҵֻйеʱʳ8%ҶԶԶ׼(1)ʮ1999ʱΪ11.5%кͷʱʶ12%ʿŴΪ19.1%йеƽʱֻ5.7%[8]

    3.3

    ĴҵǹʱʱȻӦҪʲעʽӦĴҵעʽʵ1998Ѿ2700رծԳʵҵеʱܲòעʽҪĿǰϧڴ1985ҲѾʮֳ2001ָߴ2598ԪָҲͶʽ(2)

    ۻ2002315ڼдָ2002ҲԤΪ3098ԪռGDP3%ծۻִﵽ25600Ԫ൱GDP18%(ۻڡҹ桷ṩ2001ֵ95933ԪôծռGDPıؾ27%ĸȷ)⼸ָйIJڿԿƵķΧ֮ڹծٶȹйռGDPı1997Ϊ1.2%2001Ϊ2.9%ծ(ծռGDPı)1997Ϊ7.3%2001Ϊ18%ݡ󹫱2002324ձ1998~2000ƽʴﵽ62.3%2001ܻ20%ȥѹԽԽ׻˵ɼԽԽɿծյĻë

    3.4ծĿ

    رҪָͳĹծ֮⻹ŴծҪʣϻвδǼծ

    (1)ᱣϻծҪϽȱ

    ֪ÿ˶ӦʱڻЩǮȵ֮ЩҲһΪάȶӦÿһʻ˹ڼϵͶʽ֮ӸʻȡʽϽϸҵжһdzӴϻ˺ܶǮëЩǮǶڻᱣϵͽЩĻڼƻǸûʲôݻͶߵĽ඼ڻͶ;ڷŵݽǿյĸ˰ֲָ֧Ҳ˵ǰͶ֧ԱϽֱǰDzŸոտʼŤתľĸʻЩʻǿյdz˵ġծ

    й˿ṹdzƽԽԽɵ仯֮[9]˿ṹķֲҲ鷳60ĩĻСѧɽץ˿ھ19651970ڼ˿10454Ժٽ19901995ڼֻ6788(3)˿ڷֲϵŤ

    60˽2025ǰݵʱϰIJ඼ǶŮÿһϰҪ˵ıʽdzʽ200011%Ϊ203025%205036%Ҳ˵ƽ9һǸʱ3ͶҪһҪָİ취֧ϽĻϽһҪε38.5%Ȼ˸ߵ˰ʽݻٹ񾭼ϵͳΪ˱һDZҪڿʼ𲽻ծʵʻ

    ΪоĿеնȴѧֱԺչоĵĵԷҽһһģö̬ģ̽йᱣϵͳIJȱ[10]ǵĽάֹȥġָϻ𽫺֧ܿȱ1995۸2010ȱڽﵽ2060Ԫȱڽ2050ﵽ102730Ԫ1995۸ĻϽծ2000Ϊ63280Ԫô2050ȱڽΪ371390Ԫ(4)

    չԺİȻ˾ļծ2000Լ76000ԪеĹծ70000[11]ᱣϵծʷծȴǷǻԽԽ

    (2)һծǹеIJ

    Ľ˾׼ն2001109˵йIJܶ30000Ҳ׼նĹƲô׼ȷչٷռȫ25.7%20000Ԫϸ

    (3)δǼǵծԼ4000Ԫ

    ֮ածתɡģʽһֹҵIJծ˹ĹɷЩҵӯĻôлֵܷЩҵôڹЩƱһֽ

    ũ粻ڽΪ˷ڷ1998Ǻϲ100ҵϺҵеȼҵбȽϺ֮ijҵ治֪˶ٲһʱЩʶпתΪҲծ

    طһٵծδ

    Щծǽծܶᳬ80000൱GDP80%[12]ɴ˿ɼйծ񸺵dzԲܵ[13]ҪӲгʵʽ

    иò

    4.1еĻ

    ȻҲҵעʽЩ˾ͿʼеԽùҵOһʽƹеʱ

    ǷΪڸĸͻƿ᲻֡һɾ顱漣[14]

    ܲҲΪѵĴǡֻҪ׼Ҫл׾

    δ˼κҵеǰϢ͸ҵֱΪҲ˵ҵΪóһֹȨȡⲿʽҵʱ1Ԫ1000ԪѾӪģһҪʱ2Ԫҵͨⷢ൱1ԪĹƱҵЧƱ˰ͶƱ۸ɶǻԴӹƱֵõеǰһҵҪʲڶҪӯ

    ĴҵгһЩʽҵǰҵõķչǰĹŶʵȨȡٷչͳɳĿռĹ˾ǼֵľӪǰõġӪСڵĹ

    ڹһġȡҵһ೵˵йѾչֻʣº̵ܶʱԹʹҪ2005ǰб뿿ҵҵҲûлеɡȳIJ

    4.2֪

    еĵһؾҪŪжټҵҵʱǵǾʲҵעʱ1ԪǷ˵ծ2ô˵ҵʲծ˵͸ƲڻŴʽֻ8%ԼĶҵϰմǮôǮŴ˲ȻӦиڿеľʲʱҪеעʱҪжٲҪҪѲָмʷ㲻

    һ2002324йгڳϯйչ߲̳ʱʾҵȥײΪ25.37%һҵеIJܶԼΪ22898Ԫ

    ڶչٷ롱ļʲ˾IJ15688Ԫļҽ˾һѾչļҹвֲʲʲ˾ڴвʲûдﵽԤڵЧ20019µ׵Ѿĺ׷صIJΪ1360Ԫռܶ8.67%(4)

    ֪ծԲһ׵ҪıȻҪʣIJЩӲͷĴʲ˾ծʲıºܴҪ30%ܳɹôн10000ڵĻ[15]۰Щʡ롱ȥʻǻĴҵǷϰյǮϺʵ߶ȨԼĴҪȥϰղȥЩʲ˾ֻҵǴĴҵĴҵô10000ȥеIJܶҪ޿ڡ޸ձ桷йתƵʲ˾IJڵĻйеIJռʲıΪ37%(5)[16]

    Ŀǰм㲻ĿDzáһͶķԭ1998ĽڹۻȷָDzҪäĿհʹڴDZɹʹ200235յٶǿҵдӽ꿪ʼҪȫʵд弶ƶȡ[17]

    ʵС弶ࡱ̸19985йڹ㶫һġ֡Ե(ʲΪ)Ҫڹ㶫ڵĴҵкͨ3нʲͷ๤Ϊдȫ200רһս㶫ڹ㶫֮弶ࡱչȫк͸ҵгרŵְ칫ҽ޷ֽ⵽˸֧㶫Ե19985¿ʼ8½ֵĽȴСֵɽμԵ˵ŪȥǾҪɷ̰һֱһ19997йвŶԼչ弶ࡱ20009зˡڲ϶취ԡһΪȷı׼ȷʵ֮2000еIJʵԺʹȫԼЩѾˡ弶ࡱлҪ˻ȥաһΪʲôڡ弶ࡱϻǰһìԭȻܶǺ弶ࡱ¶IJԶԶڡһ[18]

    1997ǰһı׼3ŻΪŻΪա弶ࡱֻҪ˲ܹ黹Ϣ30~90벻[19]ٶزˡ弶ࡱΪĴɲ֪һеIJҪ

    弶ࡱ롰һĸǷŴһҵ10ʿա弶ࡱֻҪһʴܰʱ黹ߵҪ½ҪǰաһֻҪδھͲա弶ࡱӵĹҵжĿǰҵ֮İŴеIJҪ

    ĴеĴ󲿷ִ˹ҵرǴĿǰе1167ҵо󲿷ǹҵ㲻ʱǰЩҵݹԺչоĵı199632.2ԤڹҵӵеʲܶΪ7.29Ԫծ5.18Ԫծʸߴ71%ЩҵծԼǷIJծռ20%1Ԫ[20]Щϵʵֿ¸Ϊ

    ˹20%й˾Ų̶ͬȵļġһǰûΪʲرĺҵ˵ƲƲҿǼй˾˾޶ôһЩ˾ĿҪеIJһ

    ҪҵеIJÿ½ٷֵҲҪ600˵ĽڼֵܾҪְʵнڼܾ˵еĽڼԱȻһȫΧڱ˵ǵĽҵ˷ð̡һ㶼Ŀǰ̰۸ԽԽѰؾ֮;ô޵ļڼԱȥԸIJ¡ʵDZˮн˸һĽڼ޷ԸӵĽڼܵ˵Ҫ600ڲʲ¸ָôʵЩҵڼʱиҲҲٷŴ߸ɴƲֻҪаѲ˸ĿͱڹҵĻ

    ˵䲻Ļ˵ÿ꽵600ڲܹˮƽϾͷdz1992ϵͳIJֻмǧۿͻһڽϵͳ˻ЩҵЩҵӪ90ƾʲôܰѲȥ

    ҪҪĿܹóϹɵʱжȻеҵͬǻһһеʱ10ǴĻҲ10֮ʵѾԼʱȫеǮDZ˵ƾʲôñ˵Ǯеһʱöôƾʲô[21]ij˾Ѿʲծ֮˸ֹƱϰ滰ô

    ҳ󲻿вôִIJ޴ǻԸһҪڶϾҪֻѧоĸ﷽ʶijΪùеϹô͹ϵһǶDzסǸʱ˵ʲô

    4.3ܷѹҵп

    Ȼзպܴ׶ôܲܰѹгɿȰЩʲ״;ЧȽϺõȿԱڹйģԹɵijֱȽйбʲйںⲿʲܶ1300ԪʲȽϺںп϶ԳOһʽ

    ںһЩĽרҺ;ѧǸͷתΪпеȫΥ˾ѧijʶ͵ǰгķչ

    еʲȻͳһҵǽڷҵΪ߷ЧʽתͱȻҪڷģڽгеĹģЧdzΪʲôǰϵĴҪ沢ԭѹпеҪѹнָôȻΥ˹ʽгķչ

    ڵ;ӪˮƽԭÿڲЩЧϺõĵλҲһЩλЩЩйͷЧõķлôЩЧ治õķһô

    ڹпʱʲðծôЧõIJֻծͲĸлйȻûͳһìܣеIJҪҪĸбϵ

    вȫʲȨϺĸһôĸеӻѹĸΪʲôҪͬԼõһֳֻȥŹеĿҪ˴ǺеĿԯ

    вȻĸôв־Ͳܻرܶĸввֲɶ˵ЩծôթǰƲԴ˾Ȼ˾(Enron)ʵÿծȻ˾ͳһµĹ˾¹˾ծĸ˾Ŀʼձֺܺõ¼ȻȻ˾óһʱջ¶ծȨ׷ӹ˾ծ˳ҵծѰȻ˾˷ͥΪȻ˾ٵĽ˾(Ź˾)Ϊǣ⳥ѾƲǵĹҪҪЩĽ˾˰ȻƲĽѵЩƹ˾ֻֻвʵӦеIJ(IJ)ôʲô

    ڸĸصǽִҵƶǿԹеļලĸҪҪıڲĹ߾ӪͼЧпвܴٽĴڲƸĸҲȷвȨ̸ϴٽеľӪͼЧ˵пе޷ͨΪȦЩǮ˵õЩǮ֮¾ǷȱΰдһƪĿǡڸĸ޳²ֿɶ--ꡱ[22]ָʵǡջɳ²֡ڲ˼ƵûСȦǮ᲻Ǯ̣һѪ

    плⴴһЩִҵƶȵڹеIJĹϾάֹе״ⷢչӪӪзչһ̶γ˽гϵЧȻǶԹҵеĸ

    4.4ܲ˹

    ŹȦǮҲǰùйɼֵĽѵֵռGDP50%֮DzͨĹй˵ҪΪᱣϻг׳һֹййɼֵ»пֻòִٽͣ

    ϵصҲӹһҲ˵ǷʹйеijһͺܲҪеʱ1ٷֵҪ800ҪʹйĴдﵽʱҪǧԪй֤ͳ1991ϺڹΪй˾ܶΪ7796ԪÿʽֻһǧԪĴҵÿǴͷһվ޶ʽðѹѹſ

    4.5ҵӦ

    û׼ִٽҵֻֿܣ

    һ֮󱻽¶ʲеҪЩǽ͵ŷʴһ

    ڶڹййб͹йɼһ;ͣ

    ɻ֮Ȧ˹Ǯڹлûûк˵ĸط־ֲĽĶҡͬʱҲϿ˹

    бһۣвܳΪô֮ǰͲǺǺӦùѸеŵߵ߼˳Ӧ֮ǰʱʹгΪһϹʱ׼ȶĽڻȻǷӦ

    ˵ܷ֮ɶܷЧִҵƶʵж»ЧලܷͨЧڷյȵЩⶼܹشмڴΪ˽ڰȫлݻΪ

    ע͡


    [1]ĸлǽоͬǵĴ֧л˶Աij޸ȻӦ߸

    [2]˺2001

    [3]μձ(̨)2002320

    [4]μűƾ2002320

    [5]μձ2002318

    [6]μ2002119ձ()

    [7]μ۷и̨ڡо20011

    [8]μ200236

    [9]60ϵ˿ڽ1995760020503μСйƸĸйó1998

    [10]μֱԷйϽծתɱо200153ҳ

    [11]ϻծвͬļҪԭǸּ㷽ʽھͨʽرʵвͬļּĽۼȫһ£ϻծ൱Դ

    [12]2001ֱͶҵOʽԼծ6000Ԫ㴢ڻ⾻ʲҵھͶʹ3500Ԫ㴢2235ԪЩֿɼй½ծʮرծĻȽϺ70%ΪгڴڶԽϵγв

    [13]2002һ顰йΣ̽δг˹άойҵеδծȯծȹйܻپ޴ծܹծܴﵽGDP75%

    [14]йигֱʾиĸһתΪϵĹжʹ˾ڶʵʩɷƸ˱ʾϣͨƾμ۷и̨ڡо200236

    [15]2002324յйչ߲̳¥ΰʾĿǰа1.4Ԫʲֹ۵Ĺջ4000Ԫʧ11Ԫ㵽ijһծռGDPıؾͻ

    [16]еIJձ0.67%ŷ2%2001ǰ20ҴеIJƽΪ3.2%

    [17]μ200236ձ()

    [18]йƶȸĸľͽѵй̳200110º

    [19]2001йĹ涨ѾѹͣϢʱ36¼Ϊ6׼һٵ3³ֲ˵ֱ׼ǶѾֵIJδȫ

    [20]μοȡй÷չĻعǰհйó2000157ҳ

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